View Full Version : Rating the Challengers

04-24-2011, 02:31 PM
Artemis - Too much keelboat talent, not enough multihull designers and sailors.
This could be a major error. The team basically has training wheels on. They are way behind skill-wise to be credible. Just one multihull guy in Santiago Lange. Not enough

Team New Zealand - Smart moves so far. Ashby, Melvin and Morelli on the team move them far ahead of Artemis. Dalton has gone after very talented designers and sailors with world champion multihull skills. They could let Melvin or Ashby drive if Barker doesn't cut it.

Artemis may have more money than TMZ but they are lacking experience in the very high performance multihull arena. Big tactical mistake. Cayard assumes it can be learned within two years.... as Spithill did. But Spithill was racing against Ernesto driving Alinghi. What if Alinghi had a wing, more refined hulls, and Cam lewis or Randy Smyth driving? Ask any top sailor that tried to pull off a "2 year" olympic campaign in the Tornado. You may do well. You may win your country's olympic trials, but you won't win gold.

This will come down to best hulls, best wing, best blades, and best driver. Each equally having 1/4 importance.

Give TNZ 3 out of 4 right now.

Same rating for Oracle

Artemis: 1 out of 4.

Everyone else is 2nd tier.

Old Codger
04-25-2011, 02:14 PM
You probably have more information that I do. I wouldn't count anyone out at this point. Still time to make changes and Artemis won't be reluctant about making changes if they think it's required. Cayard isn't in this to lose.
There is some serious talent in France but who the hell knows what, or if, they'll do something.
I haven't seen any odds from the betting houses yet so looking where to put money on any of the teams is premature.
For the sake of discussion, TNZ may even have a small advantage over Oracle on the design side. Dalton sure isn't shy about locking up talent is he.
Your take on sailors racing the Tornado and the time that it takes to get a grip on the finer points and being able to podium has merit. Having the time to race the 45s against the same teams that they'll be up against on the 72 may change the learning curve a bit for those less experienced.

Angry Dolphin
04-25-2011, 02:44 PM
15 teams made it past the deadline for signing.
10 official
3 undisclosed
2 still in vetting stage

I'll be surprised to see 8 of em make it to the 72' rounds in 2013

Old Codger
04-25-2011, 03:17 PM
Hadn't really thought about it until I read my own post. Betting houses and posted odds. It will be interesting to see what the Las Vegas people do with the AC.
The whole promotional aspect of the next AC seems to be about making it interesting for a much wider audience. Christ only knows how much is wagered on NFL, college ball, and NASCAR in the USA. I wonder if the USA based betting houses will even pay attention. They didn't last time.

China has no shortage of technological resources. Do they have the sailors?

Why would you be surprised if 8 make it through to the end?

04-29-2011, 08:30 PM
The 45's are great trainers for the teams and will help bring them down the multi/wing curve.

Expect things to reset amongst the teams when the 72's arrive. The advantage will ultimately lie with the design, wing, and crewmanship. Crew will be critical and is the biggest variable.

Old Codger
04-29-2011, 10:24 PM
Wondering if the 72s will accelerate as quickly as the 45. I've been watching some of the recent videos of the 45s and they can move from zero to all out in no time.

war dog
04-29-2011, 10:38 PM
Some crazy acceleration ..........fall off leward bow down then off like a rocket........big luff and all stop!!....... fall off and start the cycle all over again will be fun to see how the start tatcits evolve!!

PD Staff
04-30-2011, 10:23 AM
Onboard Oracle Racing during the test demos