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Photoboy
09-07-2018, 11:31 AM
Still a week out, tropical storm Florence appears to be on a direct course for the East Coast
and should intensify into a major hurricane before making landfall.

More information HERE! (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov)


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IOR Geezer
09-07-2018, 12:37 PM
Just say NO to Flo!

Photoboy
09-10-2018, 11:10 AM
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Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane. Satellite images
show that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection
increasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial
wind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more
accurate estimate.

The hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over
the next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F.
In combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast
during that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all
models show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. The
corrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this
intensification episode, and I don't see any reason to deviate much
from them at this time. As Florence approaches the southeastern
United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from
eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field
is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland
wind threats. The bottom line is that there is increasing
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.

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During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again,
estimated at 11 kt. The steering currents are becoming well-
defined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern
Atlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the
west-northwest during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday,
a turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of
the Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed
due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. The various
models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus
has barely budged in the past few model cycles. Thus the new NHC
forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE
consensus guidance. It is important not to focus on the exact
forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well
away from the center.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the
mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake

Dirty Sanchez
09-10-2018, 02:14 PM
Going to be a wet end of the week back east.

Photoboy
09-11-2018, 10:52 AM
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Hurricane Florence, bearing down on the Carolina coast and expected to make landfall late Thursday or early Friday (this its winds and high surf will arrive as much as a day earlier), is predicted to carry fearsome Cat 4 and borderline Cat 5 winds (140 to 150 mph sustained winds toward the coast then, according to the National Hurricane Center, undergo some shearing and upwelling of cooler water below as it moves onto the coastline of North Carolina. This may take it down to a Cat 3 storm--but the change may be more academic than relevant in real terms. And if it does make landfall as a Cat 4 intensity storm, with winds topping 131 mph, it will become only the fourth storm to do so north from South Carolina's latitude since records of U.S. hurricane landfalls began in 1851.


Whether a Cat 3 or a Cat 4 at landfall, what is being predicted here is life-threatening, truly fearsome storm--and on so many different levels. Florence's story won't end with landfall. The rain production of any hurricane is beyond description. I remember encountering Hurricane Donna out in New Jersey as a boy. I have never BEFORE OR SINCE seen it rain that hard! I remember the scenes of devastation which followed. Entire root systems of 150 year oak trees were uprooted as these trees collapsed under the assault of the Donna's winds.

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And THAT storm was nowhere near as strong as what's about to hit the Carolina coastline. Predictions that Florence will slow to a crawl and linger for days with its torrential downpours is raising the specter of Hurricane Harvey which hit Houston, TX with what can only be described as "biblical" rains last year--50" or more. Florence may become the "Harvey of 2018! say some of my colleagues--and they're right. Rains for Florence may exceed 20" in the hardest hit locations--and this is ONLY an early projection. Stay tuned! I've post several panels off the European model tweeted by Dr. Ryan Maue of weathermodels.com--once with European model projected wind gusts and rains. All you can say looking at those is--WOW! Here's the latest GOES-16 real color satellite time lapse displaying Florence, Issac , Helene and a disturbance being monitored by NHC in the southwest Caribbean and one given a 60% of tropical development as it tracks north into the Gulf of Mexico. http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/…
Among the many truly fearsome aspects powerhouse Hurricane Florence poses to the Carolina coast and beyond is a potentially catastrophic storm surge--which some experts say could reach as much as 15 to 20 ft.


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"Storm surge" refers to the dome of water which hurricanes sweep up and over the coastlines they impact. Beyond the strength of the storm and the timing of its landfall relative to local high tides--even the stage of the lunar cycle----the storm surge a hurricane produces depends a good deal on layout of the coastal geography and the waters surrounding--what's referred to as the "geomorphology" of the coast. Tropical expert Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground lays out a potentially catastrophic storm surge scenario for Florence and the Carolinas pointing out the devastating nature of the storm surges produced by two of the three CAT 4 strength hurricanes which have hit the coastline north of Georgia at high tide since 1851---Hurricane Hazel on October 15, 1954 and Hurricane Hugo on Sept. 22, 1989. Their maximum storm surges were 15 to 20 ft. and 18 to 20 ft. respectively.

Ponder those numbers for a moment!

Storm surges such as those would be the equivalent in Chicago of lifting the level of Lake Michigan 15 to 20 ft--while bombarding the shoreline with 20+ ft. waves on top of all that water. And of course there would be 130-140+ mph sustained winds, driving rains and even the potential of tornadoes to boot. Quite simply, for those coastal areas, what's being predicted is the literal onset of meteorological and oceanographic hell which is why its essential those in the area follow evacuation orders--especially on barrier islands, many of which were formed by past hurricanes--and GET OUT! NO ONE should be there because there's no way for any human to possibly deal with that.
Masters explains the structure of the Carolina coastline is unique along the Carolinas and how it drives the potential for huge storm surges there.


The continental shelf, he explains, extends out more than 50 miles from the coast and the waters there are comparatively shallow---i.e. 150 ft. or less. This means the incoming winds of a hurricane like Florence, can pile water up with comparative ease. The result can be gargantuan storm surges. Dr. Jeff Masters' entire post can be read here: https://www.wunderground.com/…/Expect-Storm-Surge-15-20-Fee…
Here are the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/ref…/MIATCDAT1+shtml/101450.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/ref…/MIATCPAT1+shtml/111446.shtml?
Check out the "stadium view" inside the eye of Hurricane Florence as photographed by NOAA's Nick Underwood who tweeted the image upon returning from a recon mission into the storm which included 9 trips across the storm for the collection of critical meteorological data. It's among the images posted below along with a series of forecast and analytical graphics on Florence.

IOR Geezer
09-11-2018, 11:08 AM
Hope those that need to evacuate have done so!

Carl Spackler
09-11-2018, 03:32 PM
Its very odd that with all that fresh water on the way that bottled water would be the 1st thing to sell out.

Photoboy
09-12-2018, 10:11 AM
Hurricane Florence Remains A Strong Category 4 Hurricane And Should Gain Strength As She Crosses The Gulf Stream:

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 53...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

Corrected second headline

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE WHILE MOVING TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 71.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES



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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Duck North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


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DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), reports from An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center of the eye of
Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude
71.3 West. Florence is now moving toward the northwest near 15 mph
(24 km/h) and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual
decrease in forward speed, is expected to through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the
southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today,
and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the
hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday and move slowly near
the coastline through Saturday.

The reconnaissance aircraft found that maximum sustained winds
remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some strengthening is forecast through tonight. While some
weakening is expected to begin by late Thursday, Florence is still
forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears
the U.S. coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).



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HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear NC to Cape Lookout NC, including the Neuse, Pamlico,
Pungo, and Bay Rivers...9-13 ft
North Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...6-9 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...6-9 ft
South Santee River SC to North Myrtle Beach SC...4-6 ft
Ocracoke Inlet NC to Salvo NC...4-6 ft
Salvo NC to North Carolina/Virginia Border...2-4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Coastal North Carolina...20 to 30 inches, isolated 40 inches. This
rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding.

South Carolina, western and northern North Carolina...5 to 10
inches, isolated 20 inches.
Elsewhere in the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states...3 to 6
inches, isolated 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the hurricane warning area late Thursday or Friday. Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength on Thursday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
beginning late Thursday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Florence


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Prince of Whales
09-12-2018, 10:21 AM
I was expecting to see some wind shear or high pressure system slow down or reduce strength.

Not the case. Going to be a long weekend in the Carolina's.

God speed!

Photoboy
09-12-2018, 12:21 PM
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Images of Hurricane Florence taken by Alexander Gerst of the International Space Station
shows a magnificent yet terrifying storm as it rumbles across the Atlantic.

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Single Hander
09-12-2018, 03:44 PM
Glad NOT to be out in that part of the Atlantic right now.

Hold on guys!