• Flo Becomes Cat 4 Hurricane





    Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

    ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

    Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
    has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
    near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
    on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


    SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
    ---------------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W
    ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
    ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

    $$
    Forecaster Blake







    Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 45
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

    Florence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane. Satellite images
    show that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection
    increasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial
    wind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value. A NOAA
    Hurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more
    accurate estimate.

    The hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over
    the next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F.
    In combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast
    during that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all
    models show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. The
    corrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this
    intensification episode, and I don't see any reason to deviate much
    from them at this time. As Florence approaches the southeastern
    United States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from
    eyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field
    is expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland
    wind threats. The bottom line is that there is increasing
    confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
    hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.







    During the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again,
    estimated at 11 kt. The steering currents are becoming well-
    defined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern
    Atlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the
    west-northwest during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday,
    a turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of
    the Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed
    due to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes. The various
    models are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus
    has barely budged in the past few model cycles. Thus the new NHC
    forecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE
    consensus guidance. It is important not to focus on the exact
    forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140
    and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well
    away from the center.

    Key Messages:

    1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
    coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
    a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
    Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the
    mid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
    place and follow any advice given by local officials.

    2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
    and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
    the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
    expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.

    3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
    coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
    will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
    spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

    4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
    Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
    and rip currents.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 10/1500Z 25.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
    12H 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
    24H 11/1200Z 26.4N 64.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
    36H 12/0000Z 27.8N 67.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
    48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 71.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
    72H 13/1200Z 33.0N 76.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
    96H 14/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
    120H 15/1200Z 36.0N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
    This article was originally published in forum thread: East Coast Feeling The Flo started by Photoboy View original post